BLOW TO HILLARY? – AT 9:18 A.M. ET:  Illinois has become, under normal circumstances, a reliable Democratic state.  But that could change.  And, even if it stays in the Dem column, Illinois could be influential in selecting a nominee for president. 

That's where Rahm Emanuel comes in.  As mayor of Chicago he has outsized influence.  He was a key figure in the Clinton White House, and also served as President Obama's chief of staff.  It's widely felt he would be a Hillary ally. 

But what if Emanuel disappears?  A new poll shows that's distinctly possible.  From the Chicago Sun-Times: 

For the past couple of weeks, Karen Lewis has been saying she is “seriously” considering running for mayor.

It turns out voters are taking the fiery Chicago Teachers Union president’s potential candidacy seriously as well.

And Mayor Rahm Emanuel probably should, too.

At least that’s what a surprising new Early & Often Poll suggests.

If the mayoral election were held today, the lightning rod union leader who was the architect behind a 2012 teachers’ strike would beat Emanuel by 9 percentage points in a head-to-head contest, the survey found.

Lewis was leading Emanuel 45 percent to 36 percent with 18 percent of the likely voters undecided.

And Emanuel could face an even steeper hill if he faces Cook County Board President Toni Preckwinkle, long considered his most formidable challenger.

A head-to-head contest found Preckwinkle in a romp vs. Emanuel by a stunning 24 points.

Preckwinkle dominated with 55 percent of those surveyed. Emanuel notched just under 31 percent.

COMMENT:  Both Lewis and Preckwinkle are African-American, in a city that takes racial politics seriously.  It is home to Barack Obama, Louis Farrakhan and Jesse Jackson.  It is also a city in terrible trouble, with gunfire heard regularly. 

Emanuel will be blamed for problems that can only be solved within the home.  I would not be shocked if he were retired at the next election, meaning that his national political skills would not be available in the mayor's office.  Will it affect national Democratic politics?  I don't know, but the original Mayor Daley proved an effective advocate for John F. Kennedy.

July 14, 2014